Geopolitics and the Games Nations Play

Geopolitics and the Games Nations Play

Published Indian Defence Review: Jan-Mar 2024

“Hasn’t it always been like this?’ asked Charlotte. ‘Haven’t they always been games that empires play with one another?’

Sherry Thomas, The Art of Theft

Background

Just a couple of months into 2024 and the world is on the edge. Even as the conflicts of 2023 in Ukraine, Syria, Myanmar, and Sudan continue unabated, the fuse was lit for an explosive war between Hamas and Israel threatening to engulf the entire region. All these conflicts are symptoms of an underlying malaise, a malaise seeded by external forces and powers interfering in local issues. The world is amid a churn as rising powers challenge the existing balance of power and seek an international order favourable to their aspirations. Such changes in the world order are accompanied by turmoil, as competing states jockey for power. In pursuit of these objectives, states play games and fish in troubled waters. Such interference exacerbates existing tensions and volatile relations between adversaries. The games that countries play have a long history. 

The “Great Game” was the term coined in the 19th century to describe the rivalry between the British and Russian Empires over India, Afghanistan, and adjoining regions. Even as this game ended with the undoing of the Russian empire, Britain and other colonial powers were busy extending this deadly game to the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and even China. New states were carved out from the erstwhile Ottoman empire, disrupting the lives of millions, with bloody consequences that continue to this day. While the demand for a Jewish nation is justified on account of the persecution faced by the community, the creation of the state of Israel did disrupt settled populations, leading to bloody conflicts spanning generations.  With the decline of Britain’s power after the Second World War, the USA assumed leadership as the world’s Gamemaster. The USA allied with erstwhile colonial powers unfolded a dangerous containment game against communism, commonly termed the Cold War. After the breakup of its ideological rival, the USSR, America, and its allies have continued games to dominate other regions under the pretext of spreading democracy and a neo-liberal agenda.

The Great Game and other ones are conceived in international politics by nations to secure or enhance their power. Power plays a central role in international politics, similar to money in economics. Power is somewhat of a nebulous concept, similar to love, easier to experience than define[1]. Power may be understood as the ability to influence the behavior of others to get the desired outcomes. A more extreme understanding of power would be to get others to do what they otherwise would not do[2]. Politics is a struggle for power and games are the instruments employed in this struggle. Since power is difficult to measure or define, it requires to be displayed for others to experience its impact. Unless the ability to influence is demonstrated coercively, a country’s claim to be powerful remains unproven.  Games aim to force regimes to fall in line with the demands, failing which powerful states attempt regime changes or economic coercion. States are thus forever involved in playing games to ensure their security and well-being. 

Geopolitics and Games

The word “game” in the context being discussed may be understood as economic, diplomatic, and military interactions, short of war, between countries in pursuit of power, influence, and economic gains. Games are an essential part of geopolitics and are characterized by intrigue, distrust, moves, and counter-moves to out-manoeuvre opponents. At times miscalculations and blunders occur, resulting in the game degenerating into armed confrontation. Once war breaks out, games and manipulations cease and policies of the contenders become subservient to the outcomes on the battlefield.

Each state has a unique approach to game playing. With an overwhelming military, the USA relies heavily on military power alongside other means. In the pursuit of retaining its numero uno status, it feels compelled to intervene in disputes across the world. China resorts to mind games enticing countries through economic largesse and thereafter extracting concessions. Other countries particularly from Europe, extend their influence by supporting and arming proxies or the favoured side in regional conflicts. Some states like Pakistan resort to the use of terrorism to influence the internal issues of neighbours. Iran uses proxies which it arms to trigger unrest or armed attacks intending to influence actions of the parties involved. The tiny Kingdom of Qatar, punches way above its weight due to its humongous gas reserves, providing basing facilities to powers and playing neighbours against each other. India’s approach is benign, relying more on friendship, furthering mutually beneficial economic initiatives and persuasion. Each state follows methods best suited to its genius and strengths. One thus observes a variety of games pitting states against each other.

USA’s Gameplaying

The West and the USA are past masters at playing geopolitical games with a history stretching back to colonial times. Their objectives are quite obvious: ensuring their homeland is prosperous and peaceful and that it cannot the approached militarily. These objectives are achieved by ensuring that conflicts occur in the geographically distant Eastern hemisphere, avoiding any impact on their own countries[3].

They inveigle themselves as parties to disputes and conflicts away from their shores. This would be apparent from the fact that despite the so-called downsizing, the USA still maintains over 750 military bases spread across fifty countries[4]. But games which the US and its allies unroll in distant regions have proved more harmful than beneficial to the target populations and countries.

A case in point is the War on Terror, also labelled as the “Forever War” following the 9/11 terrorist attacks. In 20 years after this attack, the US undertook over 91,000 airstrikes across Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, and Somalia inflicting a direct toll of over 432,000 civilians and indirect deaths of nearly 3.6 to 3.8 million[5]. The sheer futility of some games can be gauged by the example of Afghanistan where the US allied with the Northern Alliance to oust the Taliban. Ironically after twenty years of fighting and attempts to stabilise the country, the US military withdrew in 2022 leaving Afghanistan to its nemesis, the Taliban. Whether the games and interventions helped enhance its power and influence remains a mute question. But all these shenanigans did help the Global Military-Industrial-Complex to reap unprecedented profits. US overseas weapon sales in 2023 were $ 238 billion, BAE made the highest-ever profit of $ 3.4 billion in 2023[6].

China and Geopolitical Games

China, the putative superpower is a distant number two in this respect and it will be some time before it matches the USA as a gamemaster. China has commenced its games in the South China Sea, near Suez and the Pacific, where it recently signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands. China’s approach is more subtle, playing mind games and using economic largesse to ensnare receiving states into a debt trap. China has used offensive power to legitimize its control over the South China Sea. It has been playing mind games against India. In one such game, it managed to sign an agreement with India restricting the carriage of firearms by troops on the disputed LAC. This enabled China to undertake cross-border incursions without any risk of escalation while knowing fully well that India is unlikely to do the same.  Recently it tried to dominate India by attempting to annex disputed territory in Ladakh. But on this occasion, it met spirited Indian fightback. While the confrontation was contained, it had the opposite effect of stiffening Indian resolve to counter China.

China has been at the receiving end in the Indo-Pacific as the USA is playing a complex game supported by its quad allies: Japan, Australia, and India. This game is a redux of the earlier cold war between the two superpowers, except that in this case, USA and China are so economically intertwined, that an immediate breakup would be economically catastrophic for both. This is a long-drawn-out game with each party playing its hand ensuring that the game does not spiral out of control. The USA’s objective is to contain China; the presumptive superpower. Taiwan is the key piece on the chessboard, around which the game is being played. Merging Taiwan with the mainland has been China’s obsession for decades.  USA supports Taiwan and provides arms thereby stiffening Taiwan’s resolve to resist the merger. China would be wary of trying to use force for the merger considering the problems encountered by Russia in the war against Ukraine. The USA and its allies are thus keeping China occupied and contained in its near periphery. This game is expected to continue with moves and counter moves and on occasions, some brinkmanship, stopping short of a full-blown war.

Ukraine

As games go, the USA and NATO played one of the most devilish games when they rolled the dice which pitted their proxy; Ukraine against Russia. It was known that Russia considered NATO’s expansion into Ukraine as an existential threat and would retaliate. Brinkmanship was the order of the day with Ukraine seeking NATO membership and Russia warning of dire consequences. And then the cat barked, and Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. In hindsight goaded by the USA and NATO, the Ukrainian leadership headed by Zelensky was the proxy in the USA’s geopolitical game of cutting Russia to size. The leadership overlooked the fact that the war would unfold on Ukrainian territory resulting in humungous civilian casualties and crippling devastation. Two years of the attritional war has destroyed Ukraine beyond recognition with most of its people becoming refugees. Did Ukraine miscalculate and get ensnared in someone else’s game?

The Middle East

While the game in Europe’s heartland was turning into a slogging match between tired belligerents, the perennial hotspot: the Middle East exploded. Iran appears to be the “Sutradhar” of this game, riding on the back of its proxies: Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis.  Iran had an inkling of Hamas’ deplorable raid into Israel on October 7. This was a dubious gambit seeking compensating advantages in other matters.  Iran was alarmed by the Saudi Arabia-Israel détente, with two of Iran’s foremost enemies coming together with the backing of its bête noire, the USA.  Hamas’s raids and the inevitable Israeli reprisal stopped the Saudi-Israel bonhomie in its tracks. Then the war shifted the focus of the USA and the West from the Ukraine-Russia war leaving Ukraine short of arms supply and support. This brightened the prospects of Iran’s anti-West ally, Russia, to obtain a favourable outcome in the ongoing war with Ukraine.

The USA had to get involved since Israel occupies a special position in US politics due to the powerful Jewish lobby. The main game was buttressed by many side games involving Houthi attacks on shipping, Hezbollah threats against Israel, minor groups attacking US assets in the Middle East, and Iran suffering terror attacks. Iran and the USA play a guarded game, ensuring that the situation does not spiral out of control.

India and Geopolitical Games

India has not been immune to games being played by other states to coerce or interfere in its internal affairs. At independence, India was an easy target with high levels of poverty and illiteracy. It had possibly the highest degree of diversity among countries in terms of religion, language, beliefs, customs, and ethnicity. But very surprisingly there was an invisible unifying thread that bound all regions together in terms of a common historical identity, philosophy, approach to life, and beliefs which helped the civilization survive repeated invasions, conversions, and colonialism. Post-independence, many countries played games in India, more so because of India’s non-alignment and subsequent tilt towards the USSR. Pakistan has been needling India for decades and started playing games after it lost the wars of 1965 and 1971. It stoked separatism and insurgency wherever it detected opportunities to do so. It attempted to tarnish India’s image by painting it as a country that encourages religious discrimination.  Till recently India was always on the back foot. But now, there has been a pushback with India having achieved a degree of success in isolating Pakistan in international fora as a state sponsor of terrorism. India has also been on the offensive, retaliating when terror attacks crossed its red lines through surgical strikes by the Army and the Balakot air strike.  Many believe that India was responsible for unknown people assassinating some known Pak terrorists on its soil.

After independence the West expected India to balkanise considering its internal schisms. But the country survived and slowly but surely grew stronger, overcoming the drawbacks inherited during its colonial past. The West played numerous games viewing India as part of the Soviet camp by supporting its enemy, Pakistan.  The USA also played games in 1971, when it ordered its seventh fleet to sail towards the Bay of Bengal to coerce India into a ceasefire in the 1971 war. Institutions in the West have targeted India on grounds of religious discrimination, lack of freedom, and poor democratic credentials. Many foreign NGOs have played subversive roles and supported anti-India activities placing hurdles in India’s economic growth. Indian government in recent times has placed restrictions on such NGOs. India in the last decade has become proactive in countering games being played by other countries such as countering Chinese influence in Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Maldives. It has also reached out to Muslim countries in the Middle East to counter any anti-Islamic slurs being cast on it.

Outcomes of Geopolitical Games

In all the small or big games being played on the world stage, one aspect that stands out is that it is the country’s leadership or a small elite that makes decisions. Ordinary citizens who would be most affected by such decisions are hardly ever a party to it. Take the case of Ukraine.  The leadership culturally more aligned with West Europe, decided to become the proxy for debilitating Russia and in the bargain caused immense suffering and deprivation to the ordinary people who had little stake in the battle between the USA and Russia. Similarly, when Hamas undertook the horrific raids into Israel, it knew fully well that a harsh retaliation was imminent and civilians and children would suffer the most. But the leadership safely ensconced in Qatar went ahead with its plans, regardless. Not only the target countries but even the home country suffers on many occasions. When the USA goaded Ukraine into the war with Russia it brought about economic hardships in terms of inflation, fuel shortages, and grain shortages across the USA and European countries. Despite such hardships faced by the citizens, the USA and NATO continued their full support for the war, shunning a ceasefire. The games in which a nation’s leadership engages, end up harming their citizens while playing havoc in the target countries. Libya, Syria, Iraq, and many others have been at the receiving end of those deep state games, hatched behind closed doors and in government staterooms.

In the anarchic world of international politics, very few states can avoid getting involved in games unfolding around or aimed at them.  Moreover, as countries become powerful and economically more influential, they automatically attract rivals and competitors. This is because, in international politics, power is a zero-sum game. A state can only gain power at the expense of another. This is the source of rivalry and game-playing in inter-state relations. India is a case in point. As it gains more heft, it will attract attention and other states will unfold games to stymie its rise. India will have to become adept at playing games and countering moves by others. Remaining benign or exercising a well-touted virtue-laden policy of ‘self-restraint’ will not serve national interests and would need to pave the way for a more aggressive one.

The other aspect that emerges from the above discussions is that in many cases countries use proxies to further their agenda and interests. Proxies tend to be promoted till they are useful and abandoned when they become a liability. In India’s case, Pakistan has made a habit of using its terror cells against India leading to unrest by supporting dissensions and insurgencies and claiming non-attributability. Similarly, China is helping insurgents in the North East by supplying arms and training.  India will have to find methods to deal with the proxies in a manner that also impacts the sponsors.

Conclusion

In the chaotic world of international politics, most interactions and tussles between states occur in the grey zone, short of an open war. These tussles are similar to games where opponents plan and make moves, threaten or coerce opponents, ally with stronger states, resort to brinkmanship, use economic enticements or sanctions, and display their power both military and economic. All these options are employed to seek favourable outcomes in the interaction between states. The ubiquity and complexity of games being played in international politics leaves states and their leaders’ little choice but to excel in gameplaying.

Some of the ongoing games played by states were discussed above. Such games are ongoing across the world with nearly all states attempting to protect their interests and enhance their relative power. When such games impact a state’s vital interests, games degenerate into armed confrontations.

India has been a victim of games played by its neighbours and other powers. In the past, India responded with a fair degree of restraint, following its moral impulse of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states. However, in recent times India has become proactive, strategizing to counter moves of rivals and opponents with deft diplomacy, supported by a display of offensive power when required. 

The world is witnessing a gradual but inexorable move towards a multipolar world from a unipolar one. Such a transition will be accompanied by states jostling to further their relative power and influence. India would need to be prepared for an extended period of uncertainty and be proactive in countering games being played to stymie its rise and influence.

End Notes

[1] Joseph S. Nye Jr., “The Changing Nature of World Power,” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 105, No. 2 (Summer 1990), p. 177.

[2] Michael Barnett & Raymond Duvall, Power in International Politics, Cambridge University Press:  15 February 2005, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/power-in-international-politics/F5F3C74D30A12A5C4CC9B4EFEA152967

[3] Armin Rosen, Jonathan Garber, STRATFOR, Feb 28, 2016, https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/stratfor-founder-george-friedman-gave-us-some-jarring-predictions-for-the-future/articleshow/51181014.cms

[4] Everett Bledsoe, How Many US Military Bases Are There in the World? October 1, 2023, https://www.thesoldiersproject.org/how-many-us-military-bases-are-there-in-the-world/

[5] Costs of War, Watson Institute, Updated August 2023, https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/costs/human/civilians#:~:text=The%20U.S.%20post-9%2F11,a%20result%20of%20the%20wars.

[6] Arms Lobby Making a Killing, Times of India, Saturday, 24 February 2024, Hyderabad Edition, Page 12.